Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jansen homered to left center (392 feet).0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Springer singled to left, Kiermaier scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Kiermaier tripled to center, Merrifield scored and Jansen scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Jansen homered to left (359 feet), Chapman scored and Belt scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -117
- CHW +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −15 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 5–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.