Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chapman doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Biggio homered to right (362 feet), Belt scored and Merrifield scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Merrifield doubled to left, Kirk scored, Belt to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Vaughn doubled to center, Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Fair odds
- TOR -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +9 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +65 Elo | TOR 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 4–24th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.