Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Raleigh homered to right (408 feet), Suárez scored.10–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 9Crawford singled to right, Caballero scored.8–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 17–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 8Raleigh homered to right center (409 feet), Kelenic scored.7–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 6Hernández homered to right center (371 feet).5–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 3Espinal singled to left, Kirk scored and Jansen scored, Espinal to second.4–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 3Jansen doubled to left, Chapman scored, Kirk to third.4–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 2Bichette homered to center (460 feet), Espinal scored and Springer scored.4–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 1Chapman doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Bichette scored.4–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Trammell homered to right (359 feet), Kelenic scored, Raleigh scored and Hernández scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -120
- SEA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–7 | Road vs home | 9–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.