Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Tom MurphyBatting2-4
- Easton McGeePitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 10Varsho singled to right, Bichette scored, Chapman to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.0–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Fair odds
- TOR -120
- SEA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +9 | SEA: Easton McGee (no track record yet) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +55 Elo | TOR 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Road vs home | 8–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.