Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Springer singled to center, Merrifield scored, Kiermaier to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Chapman doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Raleigh singled to right, Kelenic scored, Suárez to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Kirk homered to left center (401 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Raleigh homered to right (365 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | +6 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 1.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.612th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.