Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8McKenna doubled to center, Urías scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Santander hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Turner singled to right, Verdugo scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Mullins reached on infield single to second, O'Hearn scored, Urías to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Urías singled to center, Frazier scored, O'Hearn to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Yoshida homered to center (412 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Santander hit sacrifice fly to center, Mullins scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +12 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +24 Elo | BAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.710th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 8–43rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.