Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Hays singled to left, Mateo scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4McCann singled to right, Urías scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Urías doubled to center, Mountcastle scored and Santander scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Frazier singled to left, Mullins scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Devers homered to right (387 feet), Verdugo scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Verdugo singled to right, Wong scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Casas homered to right center (426 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +27 Elo | BAL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 7–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.