Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Austin VothPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mullins homered to right (366 feet), Urías scored, Vavra scored and Mateo scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 9Henderson homered to center (401 feet).8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 8McGuire grounded out to first, Duran scored.8–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Mateo homered to center (412 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Duran homered to center (409 feet), Yoshida scored, Hernández scored and Casas scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Devers hit sacrifice fly to center, Arroyo scored, Verdugo to second, McGuire to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2McGuire singled to left, Duran scored, Arroyo to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Arroyo singled to right, Casas scored, Duran to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +25 | BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 1.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +70 Elo | BAL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.