Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Zach PlesacPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Verdugo singled to left, Arroyo scored.7–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 10Arroyo singled to center, Valdez scored.7–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 10Zunino singled to left, Arias scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Ramírez singled to center, Straw scored, Kwan to second.6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 7Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored, Straw scored and Kwan scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Giménez homered to right (315 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Arroyo to home on throwing error by catcher Zunino, Wong stole third.1–6
- 6Arroyo to home on throwing error by catcher Zunino, Wong stole third.1–6
- 6Arroyo to home on throwing error by catcher Zunino, Wong stole third.1–6
- 4Arroyo singled to center, Valdez scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Valdez doubled to left, Tapia scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -112
- CLE +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −1 | CLE: Zach Plesac: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 7–715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.