Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Mike ZuninoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brennan homered to right (351 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Verdugo grounded out to first, Hernández scored, Valdez to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Zunino homered to left center (346 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Hernández singled to left, Casas scored, Duran to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Straw singled to right, Brennan scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Bell doubled to left, Ramírez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Fair odds
- BOS -113
- CLE +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +13 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +37 Elo | BOS 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 7–615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.