Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arroyo doubled to left, Yoshida scored and Devers scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Verdugo homered to right (373 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Wong homered to left (427 feet), Arroyo scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Rosario singled to right, Kwan scored, Rosario to second.1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Verdugo singled to left, Wong scored and Duran scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -112
- CLE +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.426th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.