Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Springer singled to right, Jansen scored, Merrifield to second.5–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–11
- 8Devers homered to right (408 feet), Turner scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Turner singled to left, Tapia scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 5Varsho hit sacrifice fly to left, Bichette scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 5Guerrero Jr. hit a ground rule double, Springer scored, Bichette to third.3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Bichette singled to right, Kiermaier scored, Springer to second.2–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Duran singled to center, Yoshida scored, Duran to second, Devers to third.1–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4Yoshida singled to left, Tapia scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Guerrero Jr. homered to center (403 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Devers doubled to right, Turner scored and Yoshida scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Yoshida singled to right, Tapia scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.1 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 12–77th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.