Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hernández singled to center, Casas scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Yoshida doubled to left, Hernández scored, Verdugo to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Yoshida reached on infield single to pitcher, Wong scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Valdez reached on infield single to first, Duran scored and Turner scored, Casas to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Casas singled to left, Yoshida scored, Duran to second, Turner to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Kiermaier scored on balk.3–2
- 5Kiermaier scored.3–2
- 4Casas singled to right, Duran scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Duran doubled to center, Devers scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left (450 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Varsho homered to right (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- TOR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.0 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +11 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 11–710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.