Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting4-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wong homered to left center (353 feet).6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 6Wong homered to left (368 feet).6–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 5Yoshida singled to left, Turner scored, Refsnyder to third.6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Refsnyder singled to left, Verdugo scored, Turner to second.6–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Varsho homered to right center (406 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Chapman scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second on passed ball by Wong.3–3
- 5Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second on passed ball by Wong.3–3
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Jansen scored and Kiermaier scored, Bichette to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Yoshida homered to center (392 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Refsnyder singled to center, Verdugo scored, Refsnyder out stretching at second.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Arroyo homered to left center (404 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.0 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +5 Elo | BOS 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 10–712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.