Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3
- Roansy ContrerasPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ramírez homered to center (430 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Siri stole home, Franco stole second.1–3
- 5Siri stole home, Franco stole second.1–3
- 5Franco singled to center, Margot scored, Siri to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Santana hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored, Reynolds to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Ramírez singled to right, Arozarena scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Fair odds
- TB -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −16 | PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Javy Guerra (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +10 Elo | TB 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 6.71st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +3.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 14–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.