Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vaughn homered to left (407 feet), Sosa scored and Haseley scored.9–12
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–9
- 9Haseley singled to center, Andrus scored, Sosa to third.9–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–8
- 9Andrus singled to right, Burger scored.9–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 9Colás hit sacrifice fly to left, Grandal scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 9Burger doubled to right, Benintendi scored, Grandal to third.9–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 9Bethancourt hit sacrifice fly to right, Paredes scored, Walls to third.9–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 9Walls singled to center, J. Lowe scored, Paredes to second.8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 8Haseley struck out, Andrus scored, Haseley to first on passed ball by Bethancourt.7–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging7–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -108
- CHW +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.0 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +59 Elo | TB 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.6 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 6.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.8 | Margin | −2.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–3 | Road vs home | 3–926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 6–0 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.