Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (375 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Margot singled to left, Paredes scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Burger homered to left (375 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Vaughn homered to left center (427 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1B. Lowe flied out to second, Díaz scored, Arozarena to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -105
- CHW +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +44 Elo | TB 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.6 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 1st of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.7 | Margin | −2.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–0 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.