Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haseley singled to right, González scored.14–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play14–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul14–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul14–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 214–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–5
- 9González tripled to right, Colás scored.14–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–4
- 9Raley homered to center (432 feet).14–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play14–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 213–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul13–3
- 8Burger doubled to center, Haseley scored.13–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–2
- 7Díaz homered to right center (380 feet).13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–2
- 6J. Lowe singled to left, Paredes scored.12–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 111–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 6Paredes doubled to left, B. Lowe scored, Mejía scored and Franco scored.11–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Raley scored on error, Franco safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Vaughn, Mejía to second.8–2
- 6Raley scored on error, Franco safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Vaughn, Mejía to second.8–2
- 6Raley scored on error, Franco safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Vaughn, Mejía to second.8–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 5Paredes grounded out to third, Arozarena scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +14 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +46 Elo | TB 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.5 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 3–625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–0 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.