Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena homered to left center (406 feet).12–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 8Mejía homered to right (355 feet).11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7J. Lowe homered to right center (382 feet).10–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Arozarena homered to left center (433 feet), Díaz scored and Franco scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 7Franco singled to right, Mejía scored and Siri scored, Díaz to third.6–3
- 7Pitch 11 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Siri doubled to left, Margot scored, Mejía to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Margot reached on infield single to second, Paredes scored, Walls to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Paredes doubled to left, J. Lowe scored on error, Paredes safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Lynn.2–3
- 7Paredes doubled to left, J. Lowe scored on error, Paredes safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Lynn.2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -106
- CHW +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −15 | TB: Calvin Faucher: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +52 Elo | TB 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.6 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–3 | Road vs home | 3–826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 5–0 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.