Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raley doubled to left, Siri scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Franco homered to center (425 feet).1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6J. Lowe homered to right (455 feet).1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Ramírez singled to left, Franco scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Mejía scored on error, Franco safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Bae.1–4
- 5Mejía scored on error, Franco safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Bae.1–4
- 5Mejía scored on error, Franco safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Bae.1–4
- 5Mejía scored on error, Franco safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Bae.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3B. Lowe doubled to center, Ramírez scored and Franco scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Díaz scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Castro, Franco to second.1–1
- 3Díaz scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Castro, Franco to second.1–1
- 3Díaz scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Castro, Franco to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3McCutchen homered to left (357 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- PIT +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +15 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +42 Elo | TB 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 6.61st of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +3.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 15–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.