Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Vince VelasquezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santana doubled to right, Reynolds scored and Marcano scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Díaz homered to right center (382 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Arozarena homered to right (384 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Walls homered to right (380 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- PIT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +8 | PIT: Vince Velasquez: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 6.71st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +3.61st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 16–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.