Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suwinski homered to right center (398 feet).8–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Kiermaier grounded into double play, second to first, Belt scored, Biggio out at second, Kirk to third.8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Joe singled to center, Reynolds scored, Joe to second.7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Kiermaier singled to right, Kirk scored and Biggio scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Biggio reached on infield single to second, Belt scored on throwing error by second baseman Castro, Biggio to second, Kirk safe at third on error.5–0
- 3Biggio reached on infield single to second, Belt scored on throwing error by second baseman Castro, Biggio to second, Kirk safe at third on error.5–0
- 3Biggio reached on infield single to second, Belt scored on throwing error by second baseman Castro, Biggio to second, Kirk safe at third on error.5–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Kirk doubled to center, Belt scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Belt doubled to right, Bichette scored and Varsho scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Varsho singled to center, Springer scored, Bichette to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -112
- TOR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −8 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +26 Elo | PIT 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 9–57th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.