Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-3
- Aaron NolaPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to right (353 feet), Taylor scored, Freeman scored and Smith scored.6–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–10
- 9Stott singled to left, Harper scored, Castellanos to second.6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 8Outman scored on error and Vargas scored on error, Barnes safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.5–6
- 8Outman scored on error and Vargas scored on error, Barnes safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.5–6
- 8Outman scored on error and Vargas scored on error, Barnes safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.5–6
- 8Outman scored on error and Vargas scored on error, Barnes safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Sosa.5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7Freeman hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 4Vargas homered to center (395 feet), Outman scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Betts singled to left, Peralta scored, Taylor to second.5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Stubbs reached on bunt single to third, Marsh scored, Sosa to second.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Sosa singled to center, Bohm scored, Marsh to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Bohm singled to center, Castellanos scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +28 Elo | LAD 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–11 | Road vs home | 11–66th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.