MLB games
Updated
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peralta singled to center, Heyward scored, Vargas to third.4–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–12
- 8Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Muncy scored, Outman out at second, Heyward to third.4–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–11
- 7Betts homered to center (408 feet), Busch scored.4–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 6Bohm singled to center, Realmuto scored.4–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 5Betts hit a ground rule double, Peralta scored, Busch to third.3–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 5Castellanos singled to left, Stott scored and Turner scored on error, Castellanos safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Peralta, Schwarber safe at third on error.3–8
- 5Castellanos singled to left, Stott scored and Turner scored on error, Castellanos safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Peralta, Schwarber safe at third on error.3–8
- 5Castellanos singled to left, Stott scored and Turner scored on error, Castellanos safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Peralta, Schwarber safe at third on error.3–8
- 5Castellanos singled to left, Stott scored and Turner scored on error, Castellanos safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Peralta, Schwarber safe at third on error.3–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Smith singled to right, Freeman scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Freeman singled to right, Busch scored and Betts scored, Freeman to second.1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Toss-upHit
PHI 48%LAD 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Fair odds
- LAD -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −17 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 9–610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
PhilliesDodgers
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.