St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored, Betts to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Peralta grounded into fielder's choice to second, Muncy scored, Vargas out at second, Heyward to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Smith scored on VerHagen wild pitch, Heyward to second on wild pitch by VerHagen, Muncy to third on wild pitch by VerHagen.3–4
- 5Smith scored on VerHagen wild pitch, Heyward to second on wild pitch by VerHagen, Muncy to third on wild pitch by VerHagen.3–4
- 5Nootbaar singled to right, Edman scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Taylor doubled to left, Outman scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Peralta grounded out to second, Heyward scored, Outman to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Vargas grounded out to shortstop, Heyward scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Donovan singled to left, Burleson scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Carlson hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- STL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −19 | STL: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +15 Elo | LAD 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 8–612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.