St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Miguel VargasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar singled to center, DeJong scored, Carlson to second.3–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Vargas homered to left (378 feet), Thompson scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Outman hit by pitch, Smith scored, Heyward to second, Muncy to third.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Heyward doubled to left, Muncy scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Muncy doubled to center, Freeman scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Heyward singled to right, Smith scored, Muncy to second, Muncy safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Nootbaar.2–2
- 1Heyward singled to right, Smith scored, Muncy to second, Muncy safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Nootbaar.2–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Betts homered to left (391 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Goldschmidt scored, Gorman to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +22 Elo | LAD 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–8 | Road vs home | 6–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.