St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-3
- Clayton KershawPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 2Barnes singled to center, Outman scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -117
- STL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +14 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +44 Elo | LAD 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.