Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt StrahmPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barnes walked, Outman scored, Rojas to second, Vargas to third.1–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 41–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–13
- 8Vargas singled to left, Taylor scored, Outman to second.1–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 8Outman singled to center, Muncy scored, Taylor to second.1–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 8Freeman homered to right (396 feet), Busch scored.1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 7Vargas doubled to right, Muncy scored and Taylor scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Taylor doubled to left, Betts scored and Smith scored, Muncy to third.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Betts singled to center, Vargas scored, Rojas to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Turner homered to center (420 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Betts singled to center, Outman scored and Vargas scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +28 Elo | LAD 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–10 | Road vs home | 10–66th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.