Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto singled to left, Castellanos scored and Turner scored, Guthrie to second.1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Schwarber homered to right (434 feet), Harper scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Casas homered to center (416 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Schwarber singled to right, Harper scored, Castellanos to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Castellanos grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stott scored, Harper to second, Turner out at third.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 46%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- BOS +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +30 Elo | BOS 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.