Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Enrique HernandezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Valdez singled to right, Hernández scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Casas hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored, Hernández to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Bohm singled to right, Realmuto scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Realmuto tripled to right, Castellanos scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Hernández singled to left, Yoshida scored, Duran to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Turner grounded out to third, Tapia scored, Yoshida to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Devers singled to right, Tapia scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Fair odds
- PHI -106
- BOS +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.