Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner homered to left (399 feet).7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 6Refsnyder doubled to left, McGuire scored and Arroyo scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Harper homered to left center (396 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Sosa singled to right, Bohm scored, Marsh to second.5–2
- 4Pitch 11 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 35–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4McGuire singled to left, Arroyo scored, Tapia to second.5–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Arroyo singled to left, Turner scored and Devers scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Devers doubled to center, Refsnyder scored and Verdugo scored, Turner to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -107
- BOS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +9 | BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 8–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.