MLB games
Updated
Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stott grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bohm scored, Marsh third.4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 8Marsh doubled to center, Guthrie scored and Realmuto scored, Bohm to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Chapman hit by pitch, Kiermaier scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Bichette to third.4–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 7Merrifield scored on error, Bichette safe at first on error by pitcher Domínguez, Bichette safe at second on error, Kiermaier safe at third on error.3–5
- 7Merrifield scored on error, Bichette safe at first on error by pitcher Domínguez, Bichette safe at second on error, Kiermaier safe at third on error.3–5
- 7Merrifield scored on error, Bichette safe at first on error by pitcher Domínguez, Bichette safe at second on error, Kiermaier safe at third on error.3–5
- 7Merrifield scored on error, Bichette safe at first on error by pitcher Domínguez, Bichette safe at second on error, Kiermaier safe at third on error.3–5
- 7Merrifield scored on error, Bichette safe at first on error by pitcher Domínguez, Bichette safe at second on error, Kiermaier safe at third on error.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Sosa singled to right, Bohm scored, Marsh to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 6Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Castellanos scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Bichette homered to right center (388 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Turner singled to center, Marsh scored on error, Turner safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Espinal.1–3
- 5Turner singled to center, Marsh scored on error, Turner safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Espinal.1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Toss-upHit
TOR 49%PHI 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Fair odds
- PHI -105
- TOR +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −6 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 9–712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Blue JaysPhillies
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.