Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper homered to right (439 feet), Turner scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Tovar grounded out to second, Cron scored, McMahon to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Stubbs singled to right, Clemens scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3McMahon doubled to center, Cron scored, Grichuk to third.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Cron doubled to left, Profar scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 2Trejo hit sacrifice fly to right, McMahon scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Clemens grounded out to first, Schwarber scored, Marsh to second, Bohm to third.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Bohm singled to center, Castellanos scored and Harper scored, Schwarber to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored, Harper to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -108
- PHI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | PHI: Ranger Suarez (no track record yet) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +20 Elo | COL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 7–1024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.