Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Profar homered to center (405 feet), McMahon scored.10–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 310–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 210–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 7McMahon tripled to right, Bryant scored and Díaz scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Cron hit sacrifice fly to right, Blackmon scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Grichuk reached on infield single to shortstop, Tovar scored, Blackmon to second.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Blackmon singled to right, Profar scored, Tovar to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Tovar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Díaz scored, Castro out at second, Profar to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to first, Cron scored on error, Díaz safe at second on error by shortstop Marcano.2–1
- 4McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to first, Cron scored on error, Díaz safe at second on error by shortstop Marcano.2–1
- 4McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to first, Cron scored on error, Díaz safe at second on error by shortstop Marcano.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3McCutchen singled to center, Hayes scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Profar homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −15 | COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +27 Elo | PIT 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 10–711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–4 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.