Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tovar homered to left (389 feet), Castro scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Díaz singled to center, Grichuk scored, Bryant to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Lindor grounded out to shortstop, Álvarez scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Blackmon hit sacrifice fly to left, Tovar scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Alonso grounded out to third, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Díaz singled to right, Blackmon scored, Bryant to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Fair odds
- NYM -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +43 Elo | NYM 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 7–616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.