New York Mets at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 1Báez homered to right center (380 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Greene homered to right (383 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +16 | NYM: Justin Verlander (no track record yet) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +29 Elo | DET 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 7–716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.