Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mateo homered to left (396 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Báez doubled to left, Greene scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Rogers homered to left center (410 feet), Vierling scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Hays hit sacrifice fly to right, Mountcastle scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Frazier homered to right (354 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Mountcastle doubled to left, Rutschman scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2O'Hearn singled to right, Hays scored, Henderson to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- BAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +17 Elo | BAL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 5–1 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.