Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Eric HaaseBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santander homered to left center (414 feet), Mountcastle scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to right, Mullins scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Mullins tripled to right, McKenna scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Frazier scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Maton walked, Vierling scored, Greene to second, McKinstry to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 42–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Ortiz singled to right, Mateo scored and Frazier scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Haase singled to left, Maton scored and Carpenter scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Schoop grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Haase scored, Baddoo out at second, Cabrera to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 45%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- BAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −12 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +33 Elo | BAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 4–415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.