Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Short homered to left center (418 feet).4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Mateo homered to left (366 feet), Mountcastle scored and Santander scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Vierling doubled to left, Baddoo scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Vierling doubled to center, Maton scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Greene singled to center, McKinstry scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2McCann homered to left center (419 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Vierling singled to center, Báez scored and Torkelson scored, Baddoo to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Báez singled to center, McKinstry scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +19 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +7 Elo | DET 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.926th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 4–0 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.