Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan McKennaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Tyler NevinBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Nevin homered to center (421 feet), Greene scored and Báez scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Báez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Short scored on error, Greene safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Greene safe at third on error.6–1
- 6Báez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Short scored on error, Greene safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Greene safe at third on error.6–1
- 6Báez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Short scored on error, Greene safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Greene safe at third on error.6–1
- 6Báez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Short scored on error, Greene safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Greene safe at third on error.6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6McKenna homered to left (383 feet), Henderson scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Ortiz scored on Boyd wild pitch, Hays to second on wild pitch by Boyd.4–0
- 2Ortiz scored on Boyd wild pitch, Hays to second on wild pitch by Boyd.4–0
- 2Hays singled to right, McKenna scored, Ortiz to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Ortiz singled to right, McCann scored, McKenna to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2McKenna singled to center, Mateo scored, McCann to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +12 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL 0 Elo | BAL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 5–516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.