New York Mets at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Daniel VogelbachBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ibañez singled to left, Torkelson scored and Haase scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Greene singled to right, Ibañez scored, McKinstry to second.1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Vierling homered to left center (404 feet), Baddoo scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–3
- 4Vogelbach doubled to right, Alonso scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Haase homered to left (382 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Torkelson doubled to center, Greene scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Maton hit sacrifice fly to left, McKinstry scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -105
- NYM +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.626th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.