New York Mets at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Eric HaaseBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Haase singled to center, Vierling scored and Báez scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Lindor homered to left center (427 feet), Nido scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Nido singled to left, Baty scored on throwing error by left fielder Ibañez, Nido to second.3–4
- 5Nido singled to left, Baty scored on throwing error by left fielder Ibañez, Nido to second.3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Báez homered to left (434 feet).2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Canha homered to right (364 feet).2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pham homered to left (354 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Haase homered to right center (373 feet), Báez scored and Greene scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −17 | NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +17 Elo | NYM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 5–722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.