Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Randal GrichukBatting2-4
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Nimmo homered to right center (399 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Fair odds
- NYM -116
- COL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | COL: Antonio Senzatela (no track record yet) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +42 Elo | NYM 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 6–618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.