Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle scored on Leone wild pitch, Profar to second.13–6
- 9Doyle scored on Leone wild pitch, Profar to second on wild pitch by Leone.13–6
- 9Wynns hit sacrifice fly to right, Trejo scored.12–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–6
- 7Vogelbach homered to right center (397 feet).11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 7Doyle reached on infield single to shortstop, Trejo scored.11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
- 5Guillorme singled to center, Canha scored.10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 5Doyle homered to right (385 feet), Wynns scored.10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 5Wynns singled to left, Tovar scored.8–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 5Tovar doubled to right, Cron scored and McMahon scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5Bryant homered to center (406 feet), Grichuk scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4McNeil reached on infield single to second, Álvarez scored, Lindor to second, Nimmo to third.3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Bryant singled to center, Profar scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Profar doubled to center, Doyle scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -113
- COL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 7–720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–1 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.