Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting2-4
- Kyle FreelandPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Rodolfo CastroBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castro homered to center (406 feet), Joe scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +38 Elo | PIT 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–12 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–3 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.