Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Alan TrejoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Profar singled to left, Wynns scored, Blackmon to second, Trejo to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Trejo singled to right, McMahon scored, Wynns to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Wynns singled to left, Grichuk scored, McMahon to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Grichuk doubled to left, Tovar scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3McCutchen homered to left center (403 feet), Reynolds scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Marcano homered to center (413 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -115
- COL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −2 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–4 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.