Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper scored on throwing error by catcher Díaz.6–3
- 8Harper scored on throwing error by catcher Díaz.6–3
- 8Harper scored on throwing error by catcher Díaz.6–3
- 8Harper doubled to right, Bohm scored and Turner scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Blackmon sacrificed into double play, center to first to second, Grichuk scored, Tovar thrown out at second.3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Tovar singled to center, McMahon scored, Grichuk to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Schwarber homered to center (430 feet), Castellanos scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Bohm homered to left center (433 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Cron hit sacrifice fly to center, Blackmon scored, Profar to third.0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Fair odds
- COL -110
- PHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +26 Elo | COL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 307–12 | Road vs home | 7–922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.