Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-5
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bryant singled to center, Blackmon scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Doyle homered to left (413 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Cron grounded into fielder's choice to second, Blackmon scored on error and Profar scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner, Bryant out at second.0–2
- 1Cron grounded into fielder's choice to second, Blackmon scored on error and Profar scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner, Bryant out at second.0–2
- 1Cron grounded into fielder's choice to second, Blackmon scored on error and Profar scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner, Bryant out at second.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Fair odds
- COL -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +12 Elo | COL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–42nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 7–1125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 5–1 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.