Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Harper scored, Schwarber to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 2Crawford singled to left, Haniger scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 2Haniger singled to right, Davis scored, Haniger to second.2–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Conforto homered to left (361 feet), Johnson scored and Flores scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Flores hit sacrifice fly, Bart scored, Estrada out at second, Johnson to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Bohm homered to center (396 feet), Schwarber scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +12 | PHI: Connor Brogdon (no track record yet) · SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +24 Elo | SF 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 10–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.