Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Giants- Mitch HanigerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz homered to left center (403 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Schmitt singled to left, Haniger scored, Yastrzemski to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Conforto hit sacrifice fly to center, Estrada scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Davis hit sacrifice fly to right, Wade Jr. scored, Estrada to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6De La Cruz doubled to right, Arraez scored and Soler scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Haniger doubled to left, Conforto scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +34 Elo | SF 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.